Core Creek
The gap, priced to the rule

A capture rate is the share of deaths a book catches, the figure that holds up under examination. A match rate can read high while a real death goes unfound. Set your program and your book, and the instrument prices what the gap leaves open.

Illustrative model·Synthetic data, no real records

The shortfall

A high match rate and the liability it leaves open.

Defensibility Review
03The exposure

▲ nowceiling ▲
Mortality gap
Address gap

Counts are expected annual values across the whole book, not events in any single year. A figure below one means the modeled event happens less than once a year on average.

Every figure traced to its dated source·Same inputs reproduce the same figure
The governing rules

Each figure traced to a curated rule pack.

The matching engine is deterministic and statistical. It is not a language model. Each rule pack is practitioner-validated against the source regulation.

Regulatory basis

The sources